Poll: Treasurer An Early Look at the 2014 Illinois Republican Primary

Battleground Polling, a non-partisan public opinion organization, announced today that it has conducted a statewide poll of Illinois Republican voters to learn a bit more about them beyond their voting history and to see what candidates they may be likely to support in the 2014 Republican Primary Election. To obtain its results, Battleground surveyed 400 randomly selected registered voters who participated in each of the last three Republican Primary Elections through automated telephone calls and an online survey method. The margin of error for each survey is +/- 4.8 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

Part II – Illinois Treasurer

This weekend, Illinois Treasurer Dan Rutherford made his intention to run for Governor official by kicking off a statewide tour of Illinois.  Rutherford had been sending clear signals for the last several that he would not seek reelection to his current position and as a result, two candidates have begun circulating their names as possible successors. Both are named Bob, both have been elected to countywide office, and both are from DuPage County.  We conducted our survey with the understanding that primary fields are fluid and additional candidates may also express interest in a statewide campaign.

Battle Between the Bobs

Bob Grogan is the incumbent DuPage County Auditor. Grogan graduated from Miami University with a double major in economics and political science. He has been active in politics over the years serving as a township campaign coordinator for a number of Republican campaigns, a Republican Committeeman, and Vice-Chairman for Downers Grove Township Republican Organization.  Prior to his election, Grogan worked for Bank One, ABN AMRO, and Legacy Professionals LLP. He is a Certified Public Accountant and a Certified Fraud Examiner. Grogan has been very active in the County’s United Way. He is married with three children.

Beginning in 1998, Bob Schillerstrom was elected to three four-year terms as the countywide elected Chairman of the DuPage County Board. He previously served as a member of the DuPage County Board in the late 1980s before launching an unsuccessful bid for Illinois Senate against Chris Lauzen in 1992.  Schillerstrom graduated from Illinois College with a Bachelor’s degree in Religion and History and a JD from IIT Chicago-Kent College of Law. He served in the Criminal Division of the DuPage County State Attorney’s Office as an Assistant States Attorney. Schillerstrom has a long history of involvement in the Republican Party, serving as a precinct committeeman and later as Secretary of the DuPage GOP. Currently a partner at Ice Miller LLP Legal Counsel, Schillerstrom made an unsuccessful bid for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in 2010.

Polling Results

Q: Looking at the 2014 Illinois Republican Party candidate for Treasurer, if the election were held today, for whom would you vote? DuPage County Auditor Bob Grogan, Former DuPage County Board Chairman Bob Schillerstrom or someone else?

  • Bob Grogan                        21%
  • Bob Schillerstrom             18%
  • Other                                    61%

 

The results suggest that while the vast majority of voters surveyed have yet to settle on a candidate, those who have are nearly evenly divided between Grogan and Schillerstrom. What’s the takeaway here? Despite Bob Schillerstrom’s residual name identification from his 2012 gubernatorial bid and 12-years in a high profile office in the Chicago suburbs, he in a statistical tie with Bob Grogan.

These results are consistent across the Republican spectrum, though self-described fiscal conservatives seem to be less undecided than other party subsets.

 

Treas. By type

 

 

Of some interest is Schillerstrom’s showing among Tea Party members. Though representing only a small portion of respondents (see previous poll), Bob Schillerstrom leads Bob Grogan by 6 points, though still within the margin of error.

Treas. Tea Party

 

 

Conversely, Grogan does better among respondents who are members of a local Republican organization. Among this segment, representing approximately 1/3 of all respondents, Grogan holds a statistically significant 11% lead over Schillerstrom. As noted previously, organizational support is key in the early stages of a campaign when candidates often struggle to obtain endorsements as well as assistance circulating petitions.

Trea. by local GOP

 

We stress that these are very preliminary numbers and reflect the opinions of only those most likely to participate in Republican primary based on past voting habits. Nevertheless, we believe the numbers are instructive in providing a snapshot of where those Republican are leaning…at the moment…and in suggesting that the primaries for both Governor and Treasurer remain wide open.

 

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